Treasury 10-year notes extended the biggest weekly drop in eight months amid concern inflation may accelerate as the economy improves. Oil increased, while U.S. stocks capped the biggest weekly gain of the year.
Ten-year Treasury yields added one basis point to 2.29 percent at 4 p.m. in New York after the cost of living in the U.S. rose the most in 10 months. The benchmark note’s rate surged 26 basis points this week. The S&P 500 added 0.1 percent to 1,404.17, the highest since May 2008, and climbed 2.4 percent in five days. The VIX, the benchmark gauge of U.S. stock options, slid to an almost five-year low. Oil halted a two-day drop as the dollar fell versus 14 of 16 major peers.
Stocks rallied this week, Treasuries slid and money-market rates rose after the Federal Open Market Committee members raised their assessment of the U.S. economy on March 13. Reports yesterday showing growth in manufacturing in America’s northeast and a drop in jobless claims also bolstered confidence in the world’s largest economy.
“We’ve seen stronger data in the U.S.,” said Ira Jersey, an interest-rate strategist in New York at Credit Suisse Group AG, one of 21 primary dealers that trade Treasuries with the central bank. “The Treasury market is trading on U.S. fundamentals and Fed expectations.”
The difference in yields between 10-year notes and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities climbed to 2.41 percentage points, the most since August, as investors sought a hedge against rising prices.
The consumer-price index climbed 0.4 percent in February, matching the median economist forecast and reflecting a jump in gasoline that failed to spread to other goods and services. The so-called core measure, which excludes more volatile food and energy costs, climbed 0.1 percent, less than projected.
Fed Statement
The Fed’s policy statement on March 13 drove money-market derivative traders to bring forward the time when they predict the Fed will first lift its target of zero to 0.25 percent and damped speculation the Fed will buy more debt in a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3.
Forward markets for overnight index swaps, whose rate shows what traders expect the federal funds effective rate to average over the life of the contract, signal a quarter percentage point advance in approximately the September and October 2013 period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg as of March 15. Last month, such an increase in the effective rate wasn’t predicted until early 2014. This year the effective rate has averaged 0.15 percentage point below the top end of the target range that the Fed reiterated three days ago.
Gains Pared
The S&P 500 pared early gains today after reports on industrial production and consumer confidence trailed estimates, tempering optimism about the economy after data yesterday showed jobless claims matched a four-year low and a Fed gauge of manufacturing in the New York area showed the strongest growth in a year. The Dow (INDU) Jones Industrial Average slipped 20.14 points, or 0.2 percent, to 13,232.62 to snap a streak of seven straight gains and retreat from the highest level since 2007.
Energy, raw-material producers and financial shares led gains among the 10 main groups in the S&P 500, while consumer- discretionary companies and utilities fell the most. Bank of America Corp. and Alcoa Inc. rose at least 1.4 percent for the biggest gains in the Dow, while United Technologies Corp., Microsoft Corp. and Walt Disney Co. fell the most.
The S&P 500 closed above 1,400 for the first time in almost four years yesterday and is up almost 12 percent this year, poised for its best first quarter since 1998.
Financials Rally
Financial shares in the S&P 500 rose 5.9 percent as a group this week to lead gains among 10 industries after most U.S. banks passed Fed stress tests. The group has surged 21 percent this year. Thomas Lee, JPMorgan’s chief U.S. equity strategist, and Jonathan Golub, his counterpart at UBS AG, said in reports that financial companies may add to the rally if longer-term interest rates continue to rise, boosting profitability from lending.
The yield curve, or difference between rates on 10-year and two-year Treasuries, climbed to a five-month high of 193 basis points today.
“We believe this week’s move in Treasuries is the culmination of recent economic success,” Golub wrote in a report dated today.
Quadruple Witching
Futures and options on equity indexes expire today in a process known as quadruple witching. About 1.1 billion shares of S&P 500 companies changed hands in the first hour of trading, almost double the average for that time period over the past 10 days. About 8.3 billion shares had changed hands on all U.S. exchanges by the end of the day, the second-busiest session of the year.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index slid 6.2 percent to 14.47, the lowest level on a closing basis since June 2007, amid reduced demand for options to protect against losses in stocks. The gauge known as the VIX (VIX) lost 15 percent this week, its biggest slide in more than three months.
Oil increased 1.9 percent to $107.06 a barrel on speculation demand will climb as the economy gains momentum. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said yesterday rising oil prices show “we still face a dangerous and uncertain world” and there’s no easy way to lower gasoline costs. Brent crude, gasoline, heating oil and natural gas rose at least 2 percent to lead gains among 13 of 24 commodities in the S&P GSCI Index, which rallied 1.5 percent for its biggest gain in almost a month.
European Shares
Three shares gained for every two that fell in the Stoxx 600. Subsea 7 SA, the oilfield-services provider formerly known as Acergy SA, rose 5.3 percent after declaring a special dividend and saying it will buy back shares. Porsche SE (PAH3) retreated 3.6 percent as Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. downgraded the sports-car maker.
The German five-year yield rose nine basis points to 1.06 percent, its highest level of the year.
The yen was poised for its sixth consecutive weekly decline against the dollar. The Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the U.S. currency against those of six trading partners, slipped 0.5 percent.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) fell 0.2 percent, trimming its weekly gain to 0.3 percent. India’s Sensex index fell 1.2 percent and Russia’s Micex Index (MICEX) lost 0.7 percent. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (IFB1) increased 1.3 percent, halting a two- day slide. Emerging-market equity funds lured $456 million for the week ended March 14, Citigroup Inc. analysts led by Markus Rosgen wrote in a report today, citing data compiled by EPFR Global.